Gore, Albert. The future: six drivers of global change / by Al Gore. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. eISBN: 1. Social change. 2. In this edition of the. IBHA Members'. Newsletter, we highlight Joseph Voros' review of Al Gore's. The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. suiswanlegitil.ml DOI: / tcs. suiswanlegitil.ml Book Review. The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. Al Gore.
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Download PDF PDF download for The Future: Six Drivers of Global Changefuture-by-al-gore (accessed 11 May ). Al Gore: The case for optimism on climate change. .. the future are even more dramatic, even though fossil energy is now still subsidized at a. NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER From the former vice president and #1 New York Times bestselling author comes An Inconvenient Truth for everything—a.
Hansen agreed to deliver the approved testimony.
Hansen then contacted Gore and instructed him to ask about the contradictions contained in the testimony as a result of OMB edits. Gore agreed. Gore then contacted the New York Times environmental reporter, Philip Shabecoff, and his paper ran a prominent, front-page story the morning of the hearing Shabecoff, Hansen addresses the contradiction in his testimony by rephrasing the conclusion he has drawn with respect to computer simulations suggesting increased drought in the Midwest.
He states that improvements in computer modeling are very unlikely to alter drought projections supported by these models. Hansen then objects to a specific paragraph inserted by the OMB, which reads, Again, I must stress that the rate and magnitude of drought, storm, and temperature change are very sensitive to the many physical processes mentioned above, some of which are poorly represented in the G.
Thus, these changes should be viewed as estimates from evolving computer models and not as reliable predictions. Hansen, ; Shabecoff, The first sentence appears unobjectionable. The second sentence implies the models are unreliable, and that rerunning a model will produce different conclusions.
In the written record, Hansen continues speaking in order to distinguish between personal opinion, government policy, and the consensus of the scientific community, and to insist that his statements are personal opinion only.
He is speaking as an individual, not as a government official, and he believes the scientific aspects of his testimony should stand in his own words. Hansen concludes his statement by recognizing and supporting government review of policy statements pp.
He is not protesting the censorship of science, but trying to clarify the standing and role of computer simulations of climate change.
Gore sums up the exchange by insisting on the importance of truth. However, before making his closing comment regarding the Soviet Union, which ends the sequence portrayed in the film, Gore had continued to attack the Bush Administration for covering up the truth. Are they going to recognize the truth and then make the changes in policy required to respond to this emerging crisis? Gore concluded by thanking Hansen for his courage before addressing another scientist.
We do not know that. Hansen concludes by insisting on the importance of the distinction between personal opinion, policy statements, and statements reflecting the scientific consensus. Hansen is not speaking truth. How should we interpret the ridiculous bifurcation ritual?
Is it the product of weak-willed or obfuscating scientists that are accustomed to accommodating to bureaucratic pressure? The process of generating political and policy implications from scientific knowledge requires not simply elevating a single voice, or distinguishing truth from deception, but an institutional organization of the diverse opinions involved in climate change discourse. In each of his efforts to communicate climate change, Gore intermixes the personal and the political through a particular conception of recognizing, telling, and acting on truth.
He does not simply report the science. There are no didactic accounts of the scientific method. Instead, Gore intermixes appeals to scientific evidence with his own affective experiences to model a process of personal realization.
Truth emerges from situations of crisis and is a central element in their resolution. One of his teachers, Roger Revelle, shared some plotted data to demonstrate how human activities were Public Understanding of Science 20 6 changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Hulme, Scientists did not doubt that increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere would warm the planet, or that burning fossil fuels results in CO2 and other greenhouse gas GHG emissions, or that industrialization greatly increased these GHG emissions.
But no one considered these facts a problem, or a dangerous truth. Arrhenius and others had suggested that CO2 emissions would be almost wholly absorbed into the ocean. Yet, even in this oft-cited phrase, the condition was not presented as a pressing problem; it was an opportunity for inquiry, not a warning of danger. Human activities were transforming the atmosphere in ways predicted to increase the surface temperature of the planet. However, he does not dwell on the moment and the narrative shifts forward 12 years from Harvard to his early days as a congressman.
Now an elected official in Washington, Gore organizes hearings and invites Revelle to inform Congress of the situation. I assumed if he just laid out the facts as clearly as he had back in that college class, my colleagues and everyone else in the hearing room would be just as shocked as I had been — and thus galvanized into action.
Instead, I was the one who was shocked. Not by the evidence: it was even more troubling than I had remembered it. This time I was startled by the reaction on the part of some smart people who I thought should know better. But the unrestrained burning of cheap fossil fuels has many ferocious defenders, and this was my first encounter, though hardly the last, with the powerful and determined opposition to the dangerous truth about what we are doing to the earth.
In a way, then, the search for truths about this ungodly crisis and the search for truths about myself have been the same search all along.
The searching is not new — either in my personal life or where the environmental crisis is concerned. What is new in both cases is the intensity. And I know exactly what triggered a big change in the way I thought about my relationship to life itself.
One afternoon in April … p. His personal experience with the fragility of life — a widely shared experience — is connected to renewed convictions to advocate on behalf of truth in the face of corruption, injustice, and perhaps even evil.
One finds meaning and faces crisis by speaking truth. The limited avenues for political intervention are said to reflect a political system that corrupts truth processes, and this confirms the task set out by Gore: speaking truth to power.
The narrative of personal experience replaces an account of climate change discourse, and the political dynamics of climate change are presented as an ill defined, ambiguous difficulty Gore must overcome.
The insistence on truth invites challenges of inaccuracy, error, or falsity, and the limitations of these discourses for making meaning of climate change are significant, as the charge of inaccuracy produces dispute with an emphasis on technical detail Mellor, Conceptualizing citizen engagement as a response to truths espoused by expert authorities with awe-inspiring images provides few resources for organizing and managing the diversity of opinion that develops when climate science intermixes with various socio-cultural contexts.
It is important to clarify the implications of accepting this view. If simulations are not evolving estimates or dangerous truth, what are they?
The Future Summary
Throughout the s, these questions were debated in public discourse and used to shape the context in Public Understanding of Science 20 6 which computer models were developed and described. In this respect, debate over climate change and energy policy was inextricably bound up with judgments regarding the value of computer model simulations. The CEQ was approached by Friends of the Earth regarding climate change and requested a scientific memorandum on the topic. The request involved clarifying the role of computer modeling in predicting climatic consequences NAS, viii , but the larger issue was the direction of national energy policy after the second oil crisis in The panel supported climate modelers and recommended their work for informing climate change policy NAS, ; Speth, 2—3.
In this respect, the report was very clear, though also hopeful for future improvements as scientific understanding progressed, and as faster computers were made available. Policy considerations quite obviously shaped the appraisal of models. If models could offer reliable predictions or guidance regarding future climatic change, the prospects for a precautionary policy were much improved. Published in: Full Name Comment goes here. Are you sure you want to Yes No.
Browse by Genre Available eBooks Who wants to chat with me? Nu photos with me here http: Be the first to like this. No Downloads. Views Total views. Actions Shares. Embeds 0 No embeds. No notes for slide. The future six drivers of global change pdf 1. The Future: Ours is a time of revolutionary change that has no precedent in history.
A good case in point here is the financial industry. A significant driver behind this change has been the massive proliferation of financial derivatives constructed by new computer programs and algorithms loc.
In addition to the creation of financial derivatives, computers and their algorithms now largely dominate the world of financial trading. By , in Europe as well as the U. The need for speed in this new world of computer trading and the amount of industry it is spawning is truly astonishing. The value of the increase in speed 3 miliseconds has made the cable well worth the investment, and additional lengths of it are now being sold to other projects at premium prices loc.
Unfortunately, the digitization of the financial industry is also unleashing a whole new set of problems. For one, a system built on computerized trades which is itself based on complex algorithms is capable of yielding anomalous interactions that can lead to wild volatility in the markets loc. This type of phenomenon has in fact already occurred.
It was later discovered that an anomalous interaction in the system caused a run-away effect that led to the Flash Crash loc. While this event did not lead to a complete disaster, there is no guaranteeing that we may be so lucky in the future. However, opposition by the financial industry has helped ensure that no such measures have as yet been introduced loc.
Given that the financial industry is becoming ever-more dominated by computers and their algorithms with little prospect of new regulation , Gore warns that we can expect many more such threatening events in the future loc. In any event, the main point here is to show that automation has led to an increase in employment in at least some industries.
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Positive though these developments may be, however, the fact remains that the overall effect of the current wave of automation has led to a net loss in jobs loc. In other words, the extra wealth that is being created at the top is not trickling down to those underneath loc. Thus there is a growing gap between the rich and the poor, and an overall decline in the middle-class in the developed world loc.
One effect of this is that the overall demand for goods is beginning to decrease, and this is having a negative impact on the economy as whole loc. For Gore, the solution is clear: Of course, the wealthy elite are not terribly impressed by the prospect of their riches being redistributed; and, for Gore, this is the major force standing in the way of the implementation of such policies.
Incidentally, Gore believes that the redistribution solution will also eventually be necessary in the developing world; for though the middle-class is expected to grow there in the foreseeable future, Gore maintains that the advance of robosourcing will ultimately threaten middle-class employment there as well loc.
While the middle-class is being threatened, the rise of the global economy has allowed corporations to become increasingly wealthy. Compounding the issue is that in many Western democracies and particularly the United States corporations are able to gain a significant amount of influence due to the fact that politicians there depend on the donations of these corporations to fund their political campaigns loc.
In the U. Because candidates are dependent on corporate funding to be able to afford these costs, they become beholden to the particular interests of the corporations that are funding them loc.
In addition to this, corporations largely own the media including the most influential medium, television loc. For Gore, the end result is that the interests of private citizens are increasingly being overwhelmed by the particular interests of corporations.
Now, in the recent past, America has occupied a very important role on the world stage. However, with the American government increasingly influenced by corporate interests, it is beginning to pull away from its important role on the world stage loc.
This at a time when the world can ill afford to lose its most important leader. In the absence of strong U. At the same time as the U.
The biggest threat here, of course, comes from China, which is expected to surpass the United States as the largest economy in the world this decade loc.
The good news, according to Gore, is that virtually all of the negative effects discussed above can be mitigated, if not reversed entirely, if the democratic governments of the world and especially the United States only had the fortitude to put corporations in their place, and limit their ability to influence public policies and operations. Fortunately, the rise of the internet is providing a forum wherein reform movements can begin and flourish; and Gore is therefore very hopeful that the Internet will prove to be a great force for positive change loc.
Nevertheless, while the Internet is loaded with positive potential, it is also fraught with potential dangers. It is to the potential of the Internet both positive and perilous that we will turn to next. The rise of the internet has led to a massive shift in how we live our lives. In addition to making possible the global economy mentioned above, the Internet has also given us access to an exponentially expanding universe of information, as well as the ability to connect to virtually anyone on the planet at any moment.
While the majority of people in the world are still without access to the Internet, this is changing, and fast. With Internet connectivity quickly spreading to every corner of the planet, and new computers and smart phones cropping up that are cheaper than ever, it is but a short matter of time before virtually everyone in the world will be connected loc.
And this connectedness does not end with human actors. Indeed, our man-made systems such as our industrial systems, economic systems, and infrastructural systems etc.
This information is then being analyzed by computer algorithms to glean insights about the world around us, and how to make this world a better, safer, more efficient place loc. Even Internet communications can be analyzed to unearth important information and trends loc. Geological Survey has established a Twitter Earthquake Detector to gather information on the impact and location of shaking events more quickly, particularly in populated areas with few seismic instruments.
And in , U. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon launched the Global Pulse program to analyze digital communications in order to detect and understand economic and social shocks more quickly. The pattern with which people add money to their mobile phone accounts is an early warning of job loss. Online food prices can be surveyed to help predict price spikes and food shortages.
In many ways, Gore draws a connection between the rise of the Internet and the Print Revolution that occurred in Europe in the 15 th century loc. Unfortunately, many parts of the world were kept largely insulated from the effects of the Print Revolution, and it is mainly these parts of the world that have remained under autocratic governments to this day loc.
With the current global rise of the Internet, however, the Internet Revolution has the potential to do for rest of the world what the Print Revolution did for Europe and the rest of the West back in the 15 th century. Still, as many have observed, the recent Internet-enabled resistance movements have largely been unsuccessful at least to this point. Nevertheless, there is hope that these movements may yet be reenergized, and triumph in the end loc. Examples such as these are a stark reminder than any new technology—no matter how much potential it has for instigating change—can be used for both good and ill loc.
Aside from helping to overthrow dictatorial governments, Gore is also hopeful that the Internet may help reform democracy in countries where it is already firmly established.
In the United States, much of this is the result of the fact that political candidates rely on corporations to fund their uber-expensive electoral campaigns, and then end up becoming beholden to these corporations and their interests loc. As Gore points out, though, much of the expense of these political campaigns is driven by the high price of advertising on television, which remains the dominant form of media loc.
By contrast, it is far less expensive to reach people over the internet. As the Internet comes to replace television as the main form of media, then, it will become far easier for political candidates to reach people without the exorbitant expenses now required.
This should shift some of the power away from corporations, for it will no longer be necessary for political candidates to solicit their funds in order to reach the people. In addition to this, it is also the case that journalism is increasingly moving online as it struggles to find a winning business model loc. For Gore, this should eventually lead to far more investigative reporting of the kind that challenges the powers that be loc.
And this, too, should help shift the balance of power away from corporations. Finally, the Internet is also just an ideal place for citizens to get together and discuss their views and concerns, and to try to come to some agreement. In other words, the Internet lends itself very well to democratic debate and deliberation.
And in fact, many people are already beginning to use the Internet in this way. Nevertheless, the author is cautiously optimistic here; for while he recognizes that the Internet has the potential to fire this trend, he also acknowledges that it has more than enough fluff and entertainment to distract the citizens of the world from more important political issues loc. And this is not the only danger posed by the Internet….
To begin with, while it is certainly convenient to have access to, and to be able to share, a world of information, it is also the case that this information can be lifted off of the Internet, and used for questionable if not outright criminal purposes.
Al Gore Missed the Memo: There’s Nothing Nonsensical about Carbon Capture
But like it or not, this type of information is already being collected, sold, and used for the purposes of marketing, as well as targeting advertisements to specific users loc.
And over and above this, hacking of personal accounts—which has now become widespread loc. In addition, business accounts can be hacked to allow for the theft of both money and information loc. Also, it was mentioned above how our man-made systems are increasingly being hooked up to the Internet.
The potential benefits of this arrangement are huge; but so are the potential dangers. Indeed, if any of these systems were hacked which is a distinct possibility the results could be catastrophic loc. Governments, too, are using the Internet, and their information is in just as much danger of being hacked as more private parties loc. And once again, the right information in the wrong hands could lead to catastrophic results.
And while governments may use the Internet to attack other countries, they may also use it to attack their own citizens. Indeed, we have already seen above how authoritarian governments are able to use the Internet to disrupt and even quell attempts at reform. To be sure, the Internet makes it much easier for autocratic governments both to influence their citizens, and to keep close tabs on their ideas, movements and communications.
And this is not a danger that can be ignored in established democracies either. Indeed, in light of the increasing number of security threats that now confront Western democracies, many of these democracies including the United States have used these threats to justify increasing the power that they have to surveil, and in some cases detain, their citizens loc.
It is not difficult to imagine a scenario where this power is abused.
Gore goes even further:Of all the issues the world will face in the future, perhaps the most all-encompassing is the climate crisis. By , in Europe as well as the U. While the majority of people in the world are still without access to the Internet, this is changing, and fast.
So is the knowledge. In other words, the Internet lends itself very well to democratic debate and deliberation.
SlideShare Explore Search You. The free articles are available here: The value of the increase in speed 3 miliseconds has made the cable well worth the investment, and additional lengths of it are now being sold to other projects at premium prices loc. This bacteria became resistant and then jumped back to humans.
Gore does indeed tend to evoke some very strong emotions in people both negative and positive.